The most important thing in DFS football games is making a fantasy football advanced research in order to gain an edge over your opponent. This is especially valid for NFL fantasy. The date you need for that is out there, and everyone can get hold of it. Everyone can check the best plays during a given week because they have had several days to identify the players who have been touted over and over. However, those that dig deeper and use advanced research techniques are the ones who have the real edge. The key is not in finding numbers, statistics, and reliable sources, but learning how to apply these into your basic research.
Fantasy Football Advanced Player Props
Our Fantasy football research advice will start with the player props.The Vegas player props are very useful, more so than the team and game totals. You will find the player props given in line, setting an over/under, also known as O/U in this piece for each of the statistics a player will accumulate in a game. This also included touchdowns, yards and more.
The more statistics you get a total for, the more useful they will be. Although quarterback is the most scrutinizes position in the NFL, it also has the most player prop bets assigned to it. There are O/U for things like touchdowns and yards, but there are even more analytical numbers like interceptions and completions. The touchdowns and yards can be easily correlated to fantasy points, as they are scored directly in all fantasy formats. However, we can get some great knowledge from the completions number too. A high number means that the quarterback is either throwing many attempts or is completing quite a lot of them. Both things are great for fantasy production. As you can expect the numbers for the other positions are much more static.
We can get touchdown and yards O/Us for the rest of the skill positions. It is expected that catches will increase in popularity with the rise of the fantasy sports and the PPR (point per reception) format. Many books already began doing catches last year, and there will be growth in the future.
Price to Place a Bet
When doing fantasy football advanced, there is one more big thing to look at with player pops. This is the price to place a bet.
We are going to give you an example from last year with a great player called DeMarco Murray. He is over a hundred yards with a touchdown in every game at the beginning of the season. He had a very strong O/U already in week 6, it was 124 yards. The price for this line was -120, which means one had to wager 120 dollars to win 100 if he did go over it. Of course, this anticipated high yardage was included into the prices as well as the line. What is more, the player was -150 to score a touchdown in the same game, which means that one needed to wager 150 dollars to win 100 if he scored a touchdown. The tricky part about the touchdown props is that there is only a yes or no option and the price usually fluctuates based on the player’s TD potential during that week.
Opportunities and Touches
When speaking about fantasy football advanced, one of the things which are as important as efficiency in fantasy football is an opportunity. Are there plodding running backs and receivers with terrible run after catch skills who have succeeded as fantasy options? We know that there are many players, who can produce on limited opportunities. They are all in the NFL rank and can make plays. Here we are trying to analyze these players in a predictive way. And this time we will take a look at the opportunity because it is a better option than past production. We have prepared two generic examples through the first two games of a season to illustrate what we mean.
- Player 1: 11 catches, 22 targets, 1 touchdown, 173 yards;
- Player 2: 11 catches, 14 targets, 2 touchdowns, 212 yards;
We will see Player 2 on the most productive and top lists, but Player 1 is the one with more predictable production. It is possible that Player 1 has catch rate issues but in a sample of only two games this low catch rate could just be a variance. The same goes for the yards per catch and touchdown rate of Player 2.
However, what is probably not a variance out of these stats is the heavy target number of Player 1. The average is 11 targets per game in these two games, but this is expected to continue and even potentially rise in touchdowns and yards per catch. With Player 1 we are getting more opportunity for the same production we have from Player 2.
This is also valid for running backs. What makes them even more predictable is that they get both carries and catches to fall into this group. However, the game flow often takes into account running back touches more than the same for receivers. This is because backs can rack up carries when teams are winning, and they are unlikely to accumulate the difference in carries when the teams are losing with catches.
When doing fantasy football advanced, you can use point spreads and O/U to get a good feel for the expected game flow of a specific game.
Final Words Regarding NFL Fantasy Bets
We hope this fantasy football page has given you some good example which will help you improve your play. The research will give a better perspective and feel of the game which can be invaluable for making the right decisions. Good luck!
Additional Links
- Identify the 7 Breakout Running Backs (More Time Winning, Less Time Guessing)
- How to Fix Fantasy Football Scoring (Out of Line Standard Scoring DFS Systems)