What are population projections?

Population projections show hypothetical developments of the population size and structure. Future levels of fertility, mortality, and migration are assumed in these projections. They are presented for more than 50 years. If the assumptions regarding fertility, mortality, and migration remained true over the entire projection period, the population size and structure of European Union and European Free Trade Association countries would change.

How are local conditions taken into account in the projections?

Local conditions and differences in developing the projections are taken into account by del w p.i nter national and local migration patterns are used in VIF 2019.All regions have the same mortality rates. The VIF projections rely on the availability of land and housing, as well as recent development trends and capacities for additional dwellings. Over the short to medium term, the Department’s Urban Development Program provides updated analysis on the supply and demand for residential and industrial land in the metropolitan and regional area s.i n developing the VIF projections, DELWP takes into account the information gathered through consultations with local governments, property and development experts and other stakeholders who have local knowledge. Housing Development Data can be used to estimate the extent of future dwelling additions.

How do the projections account for ‘ temporary ’ populations, such as those in popular holiday areas?

The projections are based on the estimated resident population at 30 June. The people are counted at their usual place of residence. For most of the year, places with large temporary populations, like holiday destinations or farming areas with very seasonal activities, have low dwelling occupancy rates. Occupancy rates in some Victorian coastal towns are increasing as permanent settlement in these areas grows, but it is not uncommon to have winter rates well under 50.The Housing Unit model part of the projection process shows the high and low vacancies rates. Projection areas from 2016 to 2036 are provided in a table. Areas with especially low O c c u p a n c y rates can be identified as those with significant temporary populations. Users of VIF2019 projections should be aware of seasonal changes and may need to apply local knowledge to the projections to suit their purposes. Businesses and organizations that provide services may need to be aware of the usual resident and holiday peak populations in their business/service planning. There is a commentary on key issues.