Understanding the basic fantasy football odds is one of the most important things for every fantasy sports player. What oddsmakers in Vegas do is they predict the outcome of games as accurately as possible. Knowing who is going to win and what the score will require a lot of hard work. Using this information for your lineups and basing important decisions on it can save you a lot of time and help you make a lot of money. That is why knowing some techniques for fantasy football odds are extremely useful.
DFS Football Odds Spread
We will start with the spread. Why is this so important? The spread on any game is what tells you which team is expected to win and the points they will get in the end. Both these things are valuable pieces of information that you can use. You will get the projected winner in the end.
The game spreads usually give an edge to the home team, but this depends on the game. Any spread over a touchdown is considered large, which are very helpful in predicting which teams are going to win by a large margin. These tend to run more and targeting running backs on these themes will bring extra carriers. Teams that lose by a large margin tend to throw more. Picking the losing team is not so consistent because there are many ways to lose a game than there are to win it. Another thing which has a huge impact on the numbers is the game flow. No matter what happens in the game, knowing the spread and having a solid vision of who is expected to win and by how much is just invaluable when you start creating DFS lineups.
The scoring total can be just as important in the fantasy football odds as the spread. The score in NFL corresponds directly to the scored points by every player in the game. The majority of the score will come from the offenses, although things like field goals, special or defensive touchdowns also count in the total. The idea here is that you want more players from high scoring than from low scoring games. The average scoring total of a league each year tends to be around 45, so anything above 50 is considered a high scoring game and below that number is a low scoring one. Most totals are between 41 and 50, so you would like to focus on the one above and avoid those below these scores. For example 56 points, means that there could be potentially as many as eight touchdowns in this game, compared to 40 point total which means the number can go down to five. Three touchdowns is already a massive difference in a game, especially for the highest scoring players on the offenses of the teams.
How to Put it Together
But how to use these numbers together? Let’s put them together and see how they can give us an even better feel for the game flow. Discussing the specifics will make everything seem more complicated than it is, so let’s avoid generalities and work with examples here. Let’s that this scenario.
- Baltimore @ Dallas
- Dallas Spread – 10.5
The two things you can immediately see from these numbers is that this is a high scoring game and Dallas is the expected winner. These are the general observations, but if we dig deeper and get a more mathematical perspective we will find out that there are some more exact numbers. Just having these numbers you will be able to calculate the expected total of points for each team very easily.
Fantasy Football Odds Formula
We will share an easy formula with you, and it is (Total-Spread)/2 where you also add the spread back to the favored team, but not the other one. So, it will finally look as follows.
- Dallas: (51.5-10.5)/2 = 31 Projected Points
- Baltimore: (51.5-10.5)/2 = 20.5 Projected Points
It will require a deeper research into their offensive trends, but at least we have a great overview. A team that we want to target is Dallas. However, it would be good if we can check the players that they usually have on the teams and how they run their offense. But now we know to more important things that we did not know before. They are both expected to score a ton of points, which is a good starting point for our research.
Of course, research is very important for all fantasy football odds and for fantasy games in general. But there are few tricks that will show you a lot without taking much of your time. We hope the information we shared with you has been useful. Enjoy the game!
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