On this page, we will tell you more about fantasy football projections and NFL fantasy projections. The two main parts of constructing a winning daily fantasy football lineup are projections and value. You can create the best roster possible by predicting accurately how many points players are expected to score every week and to adapt that to the player salaries.
What are Projections
Let’s start with explaining what fantasy football projections are. They are the lifeblood of NFL daily fantasy. In NFL, compared to other sports, there are more people trying to accurately predict the outcome and statistics of the games. This is thanks to sports betting and the fact that fantasy football has become a phenomenon. The Thursday games in NFL are usually avoided because of the short week players, and coaches are working on. But NFL fantasy projections can be fine-tuned with 6-7 days of adjustments. This can happen thanks to recapping data, injury information and film, which is available in the media. The more accurate the projections, the higher the scores trend in fantasy sports.
Two Main Kinds
Next, on this fantasy football projections page, we will tell you more about the two main kinds of projections.
The most common are the projections that take very few risks and aim at providing a good baseline for the weekly expectations from a player. These are derived from season-long projections that are more accurate in the long-run, than on a weekly basis.
The second types of projections take much more risks and adapt their projections even more to the individual week factors. Both methods are highly effective, but the best is to know what you want to know and what you are focusing on. You should not blindly trust only one source without researching and getting knowledge from many sources. You need to get a good idea of what the projections will be across the whole industry.
More Fantasy Football Projections
You can apply different projections in various ways to your rosters. The most common way to get great projections is to use the average of a few trusted sources. Simply choose your two favorite ones and average them together. This is the quickest and easiest way to remove statistical biases which are personal or site-specific. There is another way, which is more complex and it is using three or four sources and as the season unfolds, figure out which are correlating the best, the adjust the amount you use each of them.
For example, you can start with four sources and average them equally at 25% of the total projections. Then you can easily modify these percentages based on which sources provide the most accurate results. At some point, you can even drop one of them. The different projection sources will perform better at the beginning of the season, especially the ones basing their projections more on their original season-long data.
Sources, basing their projections on team matchups and tendencies will have it hard at the beginning of a new season, because of the lack of accurate data, which they can use in their projections.
Why not use data from previous seasons? This may be tough in NFL, because of the amount of player turnover, the involvement of draft picks, yearly player development and the amount of injuries occurring in the NFL. However, these projections improve a lot as the season goes on and there is more data. That is because they adapt quickly and easily compared to the sites that drive their projections from season long figures.
An excellent approach is to identify the sites that use matchup statistics and other factors and project players and use those projections for large field tournaments. In order to win trophies on tournaments in football, you need to find and project outlier games. Projections which are based too much on matchup factors are great at finding these potential breakout plays. These can come in handy when constructing a lineup, no matter if you use them on their own or combine them with other predictions.
Value of the Projections
Now we will take a look at how value can be applied to daily fantasy sports. People speaking about value, often mean the cheapest players available for drafting.
This may be the best definition of a value play, but actually, the value should mean much more to daily fantasy sports players. Value can be found from top to bottom in the player pool.
One of the easiest ways to calculate a player’s value in comparison with other players is to divide his salary by projected points on a given source or site. What you will get is a comparable number of all players, and you will be able to see who is providing the most projected points for their salary. This is an excellent way to quickly compare players, but as we already mentioned it is as good as the projections you are using.
Sites and Sources
At the different sites and sources, you will find metrics, which usually take into account more than just the standard points per dollar ranking. It will be useful to find metrics that value the position of the player and the site they are playing on.
On each daily fantasy sports site, you will find a roster makeup that ranges differently in how many positions are needed to fill out the roster and what these positions are. To adapt your roster can be as valuable as adapting your projections to the teams each player is playing any given week.
We hope this fantasy football projections page gave you a good overview of the two most important factors for creating a winning lineup value and projections. Keep in mind that NFL fantasy projections are very important and not very difficult to use. Come back to this page anytime you need a tip on how to apply fantasy sports projections.