On this page dedicated to daily fantasy advanced players advice, we will give you some precious pieces of daily fantasy excellent players advice. We encourage you to read it from the beginning till the very end to learn how to draft successfully based on the contest type, what the Kelly method is, as well as how to use injury reports in your favor. Enjoy!
How To Draft Successfully Based On The Type Of Contest You Enter
We will start our daily fantasy advanced players advice with saying you should know who you are playing against. The first thing we would like to bring to your awareness is the importance of getting to know your opponents. After all, playing DFS requires investing real life money. To be able to increase your chances of success, we recommend taking into consideration the three specific tips listed below.
1. Inform yourself
When giving daily fantasy advanced players advice, many experts talk about the competition first. When it comes to getting to know your competition, keep in mind that you need to primarily focus on the format of the contests. The typical procedure related to GPPs (front-loaded or top-heavy payout structure) includes dividing the number of paid positions [p] by the number of total entrants [e]. In this way, you can estimate what percentage of other contestants you need to beat to cash [c].
The formula looks like this: c = p/e
Let us give you the following example to illustrate how it works.
Lets say that it will be the first 1000 finishing positions in a particular tournament which are going to be paid [p]. At the same time, there is the possibility of 10,000 people to join the contest [e]. Using the formula from above leads to the following calculation 1000 divided per 10,000 equals 0.10. In other words, only the top 10% of the players will end up profiting, and therefore you need to be better than the remaining 90%.
Due to the high amount of participants, when you take part in one of the huge GPP tournaments the paid positions vary between 5% and 20% of the players. The contests with a low percentage of paid positions include a grand prize for the top winner (a trip or something else) whereas the rest of the winners receive cash payouts on the spot. What attracts people to these contests has to do with the fact that as a result of the lower payout percentages part of the total pool can be won later on during an event specially organized for the ones who have managed to qualify for the first contest. When it comes to the contests with a high percentage of paid positions, the payouts, there are only in cash.
2. Diversify effectively
Another daily fantasy advanced players advice is to diversify effectively. One of the key things to concentrate upon to be able to diversify effectively relates to knowing your competitors. Therefore, we would encourage you to start by taking part in low-dollar-amount 50/50s and head-to-head matches, so that you can learn how it works. These contests are associated with small payouts, but at the same time, they provide you with high chances of winning. Also, being able to observe how other players build up their lineups, as well as what makes specific strategies work or not is only a valuable source of information by itself, but it will also give you an idea about the various styles of game you can come across as part of different contests.
If you consider joining more than one contest at once, make sure in advance that you know how to manage your bankroll effectively. For instance, you can inform yourself about the practices “fractional Kelly” and “expected utility.” Even if you might not necessarily need to be an expert in that field, it would help you diversify as a way of lowering your significant winning percentage.
Let us give you two scenarios to make it clear to you how the process of diversifying works in practice.
Let us say that you have $8 to wager this week and that you are about to join four $2 head-to-heads.
Taking into consideration that the “rake” of DraftKings amounts to 10% would mean that winning one $2 H2H match will bring you $3.60.
$3.60 x how many wins > $8 (the initial investment)
In this case, it would be necessary to end up winning three out of the four contests (75%) for you to have a profit ($3.60 x 3 = $10.80 and $10.80 > $8).
Let us say that you join a $1 tournament with 11,499 other entrants. Regarding prizes, the first 2335 positions (nearly 20%) receive payouts in the following way: $1000 for the top winner and $2 for the rest.
Let us also suppose that you join two $1 50/50s with 60 entrants, one $1 three-person winner-take-all, as well as two $2 five-person winner-take-alls.
So, if you have again the same budget to invest ($8), this is how you will divide it: $1+$1+$1+$1+$2+$2.
In this scenario, even if you end up only winning one of the 50/50s ($1.80) and one of the five-person winner-take-alls ($9), you will be able to finish with the same profit of $2.80. As you can see it would not matter that the winning percentage would be lower (33%).
NOTE: To make the examples as simple as possible, we have decided to use smaller numbers. However, take a note that the DK rake percentage declines at higher buy-in levels.
3. Make sure you draft accordingly
Our daily fantasy advanced players advice continues with more tips on drafting. You need to pay attention to the payout format if you would like your drafting to be appropriate. This means making sure that the payout is proportional to the risk you cope with when you draft your roster.
For instance, it is not often for experienced and skilled players to draft high-risk and high-reward teams when they join low-level 50/50s. This is why these types of contests are often considered to be something like mutual funds since it is not advisable to take a risk that is higher than the one associated with selecting low-risk players who are expected to bring you average returns. Having in mind that it is unlikely for you to face challenges related to consistently cashing in low-level 50/50s, you might need to reconsider your strategy if you happen to struggle with it.
On the other hand, if you decide to take part in large tournaments, it will be necessary to adjust your approach based on some expectations that do not apply to 50/50s. Let us assume that you would like to join a tournament allowing 10,001 entrants and that you draft a low-risk, moderate reward team. If there are 8000 entrants who end up drafting high-risk players who perform poorly, then their fantasy player points (FPP) will be less than yours. However, this would also mean that there are 2000 more competitors with high-risk players and higher score because of which you can hope for nothing more than getting a full return on your investment. Even if this might not sound that bad, keep in mind that this is not your ultimate goal when joining this precise type of contests. Therefore, it is worth paying attention to the lower dollar payouts on the back end of a front-loaded payout structure and using the as a safety net when building your strategy. What can also help you identify the amount of FPPs that are required of you to end up in the safety net, is checking out your contest history? In addition to this, the percentage of paid positions can help you navigate your investments in an appropriate way when it comes to drafting.
What Is The Kelly Method And How To Use It
If you are looking for tools that can support you in the process of evaluating what the bet proportion would look like to ensure maximum growth, then you need to have a look at the Kelly criterion. Still, keep in mind that contest formatting and the variable expected winning percentage prevent the Kelly method from being considered a definite rule in DFS.
To identify what amount of bankroll [B] you are advised to invest, you need the following variables: [W] – expected winning percentage; [P] – payout percentage; [L] – percentage chance of losing.
The formula looks like this: (WP – L)/P = B
Let us take a look at one specific example to check how it works.
Example: If we assume that our expectation of winning [W] amounts to 60% or 0.6, this would mean that the respective chance of losing [L] equals 40% or 0.4. Being clear about the DK’s rake percentage of 10%, we understand that there is a $0.9 payout that goes hand in hand with every $1 wagered. This is how the payout percentage [P] becomes 90% or 0.9.
When we insert all these values in the formula from above, we reach the conclusion that the optimal bet is 0.156 or 15.6% of the total bankroll:
B = (0.6 x 0.9 – 0.4) ÷ 0.9 = (0.54 – 0.4) ÷ 0.9 = 0.14 ÷ 0.9 = 0.156
Now that you know how Kelly’s Figure works, we need to warn you about some problems that you can encounter when you use it. First, in comparison to other types of wagering, when you join GPPs or leagues (the NHL for hockey or the NBA for basketball), the probability of winning and losing is not the same. Second, the expected winning percentage is varying. Despite the fact that you might be able to come up with some prediction as a result of checking player’s personal history, the point of diversifying the risk is to help you ensure your profits even if you end up losing more contests than the ones you have won. Still, the recommendation you would get based on the Kelly method would be not to invest unless the expected winning percentage is at least 50% regardless whether you have chances of ending up profitable or not.
What you need to know, though, is that if you only focus on ten-person winner-take-all leagues, you would need to win no more than 12% of the time. Doing so would enable you to keep on getting 8% RoI which is going to guarantee your sustainable profitability in the long run. When it comes to bet sizing, we encourage you to choose fractional Kelly instead of full Kelly. While it might be true that fractional Kelly can be adjusted to a lower necessity of win percentage, it helps you decrease the amount of wild swings in return results. This has to do with the fact that the ambiguity of the variable in the algebraic statement is minimized.
As far as the entire Kelly system is concerned, it is necessary to adjust it in a way that would include the overall payout expectation of multiple wagers across various contest formats. This is how the new DFS players who do not have enough data to base their projections on their own history would be capable of building a strategy by using mathematical assumptions.
Let us now illustrate how each step of the process works.
1. Understand the difference between expected utility and expected value
We do not intend on focusing a lot on these two terms. However, it is critical to get an idea what they stand for. What expected value does is forming a mathematical model based on which the probabilities of each outcome get provided with a value. This happens as a result of analyzing predicted or previous trials associated with a specific contest. Thanks to the expected value you can identify what needs to happen in order for you to be able to end up benefitting from an expected winning percentage. If you ask yourself how this works specifically, let us just mention that a mean payout gets calculated by using some hypothetical results.
On the other hand, expected utility takes personal preference into consideration. This is done so that mathematical anomalies that are part of the decision-making process can be satisfied. What is also specific is that in these cases the reward is not fully worth taking the risk.
Example: Let us say that the expected value of a two-dollar 50,000-person tournament and a two-dollar head-to-head amount to $1.90. Despite the identical expected values, if the top prize in the second case is $3.80 and at the same time the #1 player in the tournament is able to earn 8 grand, this would mean that based on the different levels of risk-aversion various players might make different decisions in regards to where to invest.
2. Multiply your winnings through division
It is true that the H2H provides you with a 50% chance to end up winning the top prize in comparison to the tournament where you cannot hope for more than 0.1% per entry. However, keep in mind that thanks to the fact that there are a lot of players who do not take the time and do not put the efforts necessary to make wise decisions, you can benefit from a significant advantage when playing in tournaments, as well.
If you are not able to base your projections on data about your previous history, then pay attention to the following tips on diversification and bankroll management. Assuming that you divide your wagers into groups of four, you should make sure that one out of the four contests in the group brings you back a return covering all the entry fees for the group. Ok, but H2Hs and 50/50s with low-level buy-ins are associated with high chances of cashing, one may ask. While this is entirely true, keep in mind that not being able to have a clear idea about your actual chances of winning is what makes it worth focusing on diversification.
The chance of winning varies from contest to contest based on the type (50% for a 50/50 or a head-to-head; 33.3% for a three-person league; 20% for a five-person league). Therefore, it is wise not to go for winner-take-all leagues with more than five entrants when you are just at the beginning of your playing experience. While you cannot benefit from a higher probability when entering two $1 50/50s, one $1 three-person league, and one $1 five-person league, you will be fine even if you only win the $4.50 from the five-person league. Another scenario might be to win the three-person league ($2.70) and one 50/50 ($1.80). In this case, you still will end up returning your initial investment and getting some profit. On the other hand, winning two out of the four $1 H2Hs you take part in will not result in profit since it will bring you $3.60 from $4 worth of entry fees.
So, the main idea behind using a hedged wagering system has to do with helping a DFS player stay in the game long enough to estimate an expected winning percentage, beat the rake and get a profit on a continuous basis.
3. Learn how to beat the rake
Since there might be users, who are not clear about the term “beating the rake,” let us start with an explanation. What it means is calculating a break-even point and then managing to win above it on a consistent basis. Having in mind that as a DFS player you invest in yourself, it is worth making sure you know what kind of cost goes hand in hand with your activities, right?
As we said above, DraftKings pays out $0.90 of each dollar wagered. Whether you realize it or not, this means that $0.10 of both each losing and winning dollar are taken by DK. So, if you happen to win, you will get $1.80 or $0.80 as a return on a dollar. As a result of this, the so-called price ratio (cost) amounts to 10 ÷ 8 = 1.25. In other words, 8 out of every 10 units that come in end up get paid back out. The way you can identify the break-even point [b] is to divide the cost [c] by the sum of the cost [c] plus 1.
b = c/(c + 1) = 1.25 ÷ (1.25 + 1) = 1.25 ÷ 2.25 = 0.556
In the specific example, the break-even point equals 55.6% (0.556 x 100). So, as long as you manage to win 56% of your 50/50s and H2H matches, you can be profitable in the long run. If you do not have previous information based on your individual history, you can make use of the Kelly method. What you need to do is replace a conservative 56% expected winning percentage by 50% propositions (H2Hs and 50/50s). After that evaluate the portion of your bankroll, it is wise to risk per session by using the recommended percentage. Then, this advised dollar amount gets divided in all entered contests in the portfolio. Another option is to use the fraction Kelly, which would mean to further divide the percentage of the bankroll when it is considered to be too high. Just make sure to avoid reckless multiplying which would be a machine gun, Kelly.
(0.56 x 0.9 – 0.44) ÷ 0.9 = 0.071 = 7.1 %
4. Put it into effect
Once you are clear about the optimal bankroll of wagering during a specific day, let us come back to the diversification. Keep this daily fantasy advanced players advice in mind.
Example: Let us say that the total amount of money in our bankroll is $500. Given the fact that the advised percentage to invest based on the Kelly method equals 7.1%, we would be able to risk $35 (or $18 in half-Kelly). Assuming that we join ten $2 50/50s [50s], four $2 five-person leagues [5s], two $2 three-person leagues [3s], and at the same time we take part with three different lineups in the same GPP tournament for $1 each [T’s], this is how our total of $35 live would look like:
50, 50, 50, 50, 50, 50, 50, 50, 50, 50
5, 5, 5, 5
T, T, T
50, 50, 50, 5
50, 50, 50, 5
50, 50, 3, 5
T, 50, 50, 5
T, T, 3
What becomes clear on the spot is that even if only one contest per group ends up winning, we can compensate the losses associated with the investing in the rest. This is how we would be able to win a profit of $6.40 ($41.40 return – $35 worth of wagering).
In addition to this, the chances are that one of the other possible results is also likely to happen. For instance, we might win just one of the five-person leagues and one of the three-person leagues, but cash in seven of the 50/50s, and hit a safety net in a GPP for $2. In this case, the revenue would amount to $41.60. As you can guess, when we subtract from that revenue the expenditure of $35 for the entry fee, we will see that the profit would equal $6.60.
In spite of the fact that there might be various possible outcomes, the chances are that the profits realized from session to session are not likely to differ that much from one another. Three factors that contribute to this consistency are proper drafting, diversification, as well as bankroll management strategies.
How to Use Injury Reports in Your Favor
According to many daily fantasy advanced players advice guides and materials, injury reports are also a valuable source of information for those players who know what to look at. For those of you who are new to the terminology, let us clarify three terms you are likely to come across next to each player’s name on the injury reports. The first one is “FP” and stands for “full participation.” The second one is “LP” and means “limited participation. And as far as the third one is concerned, it is “DNP” or “did not participate.”
So, assuming that a wide receiver did not participate all week in practice with a hamstring issue, and in the same time he is listed as “questionable” on the report, then it would not be wise to draft him. Whether he would play or not in the coming contest, the chances are that his performance is not likely to be satisfactory. On the other hand, if there is a primary running back is who did not participate on Wednesday due to a wrist injury, but then participated limitedly on Thursday, and fully on Friday, and who is also listed as “questionable” for Sunday’s game, then we might actually be willing to consider him an option.
There are differences in the way various types of injuries affect different positions.T Therefore, it helps to get informed in advance about such details. For instance, as a result of the ‘two hands on the ball in the pocket’ principle, the chances are that a right handed QB with a broken left middle finger might fumble more in comparison to a healthy player. In the same time, this QB might also bring you more results than a TE with the same ailment, since if the TE is only on running downs for blocking duty, then he is not likely to score you any points.
When it comes to daily fantasy advanced players advice, many experts will say that no matter how useful the injury reports might be there is still something missing. This is an incredibly valuable piece of information you can only learn 90 minutes before game time and which has to do with the status (“active” or “inactive”). “Active” status means that a player is about to be part of his team’s active roster for the game. So, having already checked the injury reports it would not be a problem for you that you will not get information related to the specific role of the players on the roster. In the other case, knowing that a player has an “inactive” status would enable you to get him out of your roster within the 90 minutes before the start of the game.
Last, but not least, let us share with you that you might introduce chances to your roster even after the opening of the contest at DraftKings. The only condition is that the specific player you are willing to swap has not yet started playing. So, if you join a contest with NFL games slated to begin at 1 pm, 4:25 pm, and 8:30 pm, you will know the status of all players, so you would be able to remove some of them who were supposed to be part of the later games even if the contest has begun.
Conclusion About Daily Fantasy Advanced Players Advice
Although there is much more we can share when it comes to daily fantasy sports advice for advanced players we need to conclude here. As we saw, there are multiple ways in which you can get better at drafting teams as a way of increasing your chances of winning. Making use of the Vegas lines, the Kelly method, as well as injury reports are only some of the strategies you can utilize. However, they are so effective that you are not advised to underestimate the potential that lies in using them. And we hope that our pieces of daily fantasy advanced players advice have helped you move one step closer to being successful at DFS.
Keep checking our daily fantasy advanced players advice for new tips and recommendations!
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